PEA! 倍儿啊! 种了豆! 得了瓜!

boxfood

achat ALU @ 1.313

Dillon

回国休假一个多月，总算回来了。
仓位一个月基本没有动。
一个月前陆续清光TCH之后，现在PEA仓位分布是：

31% METEX
31% JXR
31% EO
5% MEMS
2% ALHOL

PEA之外，compte titres中还有一万多欧的EO，和今天刚买的一万多的SRD的LVC。
准备3-4天内compte titres清空，转投到公司PEE账户里，4.5E左右的优惠价补仓UBI。

bonnechance6666

建仓  EO 350  a 13.18E

Dillon

今天PEA操作: (包括取消的操作)
Valeur        Réf. Introduit Ordre Quantité CPT/SRD Seuil/Limite Validité Exécution Statut
Lyxor ETF Leverage CAC 40     42145414 4-7-2012 Achat de titres  3 595 CPT L: 6,07  4-7-2012 3 595 à 6,07  Exécuté en une fois  
Valeo SA     42145333 4-7-2012 Achat de titres  290 CPT L: 34,90  4-7-2012 290 à 34,61  Restant exécuté  
Lyxor ETF Leverage CAC 40     42145144 4-7-2012 Achat de titres  831 CPT L: 6,01  4-7-2012  Annulation confirmée  
Lyxor ETF Leverage CAC 40     42145134 4-7-2012 Achat de titres  828 CPT L: 6,03  6-7-2012  Annulation confirmée  
Memscap SA (regroupées)     42145120 4-7-2012 Achat de titres  3 619 CPT L: 1,38  4-7-2012  Annulation confirmée  
Faurecia SA     42144810 4-7-2012 Vente de titres  857 CPT L: 13,89  4-7-2012 857 à 13,89  Exécuté en une fois  
Faurecia SA     42144771 4-7-2012 Vente de titres  722 CPT L: 13,86  4-7-2012 722 à 13,86  Exécuté en une fois  
Faurecia SA     42144694 4-7-2012 Vente de titres  717 CPT L: 13,98  6-7-2012  Annulation confirmée  
Faurecia SA     42143852 4-7-2012 Vente de titres  720 CPT L: 13,90  4-7-2012  Annulation confirmée  
Faurecia SA     42143840 4-7-2012 Vente de titres  723 CPT L: 13,85  4-7-2012 723 à 13,85  Restant exécuté  

调整后的PEA仓位:

			Position	Cours	Valeur	Prix de revient	Valeur initiale	Heure	+/- Value latente(eur)	+/- Value %
Archos SA			7 079	4,81	33 908,41	5,0689	35 882,63	16:18	-1 974,22	-5,50%
Holosfind			2 862	0,47	1 316,52	0,7904	2 262,23	16:05	-945,71	-41,80%
Lyxor ETF Leverage CAC 40			3 595	6,110	21 954,67	6,0791	21 854,26	16:19	100,41	0,46%
Memscap SA (regroupées)			3 357	1,37	4 632,66	1,4589	4 897,47	16:01	-264,81	-5,41%
METabolic EXplorer SA			7 018	3,50	24 422,64	3,3603	23 582,82	16:12	839,82	3,56%
Valeo SA			290	34,700	10 067,35	34,6453	10 047,14	16:18	20,21	0,20%
					96 302,25		98 526,55		-2 224,30	-2,26%

基本操作思路是.之前分散投资, 基本上1/3 EO, 1/3 JXR, 1/3 METEX, 等待东方不亮西方亮.
EO和JXR近期较猛, METEX中长期潜力爆发力都很大,但是这几天比较乏力.
今天在投资者观望,大盘向下,但交易量不大的大环境下, EO先亮了. 就逐渐减仓清仓.
发现FR开始追涨EO, 就把腾出的1/3资金中的1/3用来建仓FR. 剩下的2/3建仓LVC, 因为看好明天BCE的消息而且CAC有由红变绿的趋势.
之后JXR也亮了.但是还远没有到达目标股价, 也没有到达平均成本, 当前趋势不错, 就暂时不减仓了.
这样仓位中还是1/3 JXR做短期/中期, METEX做中长期, FR+LVC做短期赌BCE这轮消息, 之后如果EO跌回去再转移回EO. 如果EO没有跌回到13.5E之下,但是CAC一样超过3300点了, 就会选择规避CAC风险专投其他超跌的有爆发潜力的中小股票(当前除了JXR和METEX, 也看好ALGFT. STNT和MEMS有待进一步观察 ).
这是大盘继续回暖, au marché买入的FR和LVC都开始产生PV了,趋势不错希望继续保持到明后天.

此外compte titres中也卖出所有EO.  准备明后天卖出所有的LVC, 全部变现, 把资金转移到PEE帐户追加UBI.

bonnechance6666

EO 换仓  PRC 199 à 25,02

boxfood

Dillon, how do you think UBI???? I heard that EA will stop selling games in stores but all from internet? Is the game industrial getting warmer now?

For EO, it has much less market share than FR in emerging market, especially in Asia, while European market is going down...
I suggest to compare their Q1 report before investing. Can you guys share some points of view regarding EO?? merci

I am out of office for training so can't trade this week... : (
ps: I have 10K on FR and 10K on ALU currently, and FR's dividend has just arrived :  )

Dillon

boxfood 发表于 2012-7-4 21:15
Dillon, how do you think UBI???? I heard that EA will stop selling games in stores but all from inte ...

Well, about Ubi, as far as I'm concerned, I'm merely interested in the yearly augmentation of capital reserved only to employees, mainly because of the 15% decote.  For the year of 2012, the offered price is 4.48E ( after decote ), with 25% prime given the current market price at 5.6E.  In this way, I've been increasing my investment in Ubi stock share every year, since 2001, already 11 years so far.
But for normal investors who buy and sell stock share directly on the market without any decote, at least for this moment, Ubi is not the best choice since their are way too many other better choices out there on the market.
But since you've asked, I could give you some general info about this stock, about this company, and about this game industry as a whole.  The game industry has its own cycles, which are mainly linked to the arrival of each new generation of game consoles.  Last time when the Ubi stock price began to soar, it was mainly thanks to the last generation new concoles (Wii, x360, PS3 ), in that comercial war happened 10 years ago, Ubisoft won a larger market share from other major competitors like EA, and both CA and RN increased, and ubisoft stock price went up accordingly. In addition, thanks to the EA "incident"( EA took around 20% stake of Ubi, with the OPA rumors ), Ubi got its 5-6 years of glory, and the stock price increased around 15 times at its highest peak.  However unfortunately, in those following 5 years,  as the competition became more and more severe, as the decline of the whole industry due to piracy reason and other complicated reasons, the stock price of not only Ubisoft but also other game companys continued to fall, until now.  Specific to Ubisoft, the CA continued to progress, but there was a real problem of profitability.  Ubisoft sells more games every year, but the RN is at a much lower level comparing to other competitors like Activison-Blizzard.  Ubisoft's RN was negative  during 2-3 years, and it was only starting from last year that Ubisoft became profitable again.
So now the tendency just begins to change.  On one hand, Ubisoft becomes more and more profitable, at least its RN became positive, with good perspective for the years to come.  On the other hand, the upcoming next generation of game consoles would give Ubisoft another oppurtunity to win more market share. Of course this is not sure, and also not easy,  but I've the conviction... But perhaps not everybody have the same faith...

Conclusion:  if you are interested in Ubisoft stock, why not put it into your portefoliio right now, then wait and see.  For middle to long term, this investissement is not very risky, since this company goes well, and the current PEA is historically and ridiculously low.  However, keep in mind that there are many other better opportunities out there, like Soitec, like Archos, like Gameloft, and much more.  So it's up to you to decide how many Ubisoft stock you would like to have in your own portefolio.

Finally, thanks for the proposal of FR over EO.  For me, historically I was interested in both FR and EO, and I'm mainly interested in their correlation with CAC.  For quite a long period in the past, EO's beta is seemingly higher than FR, it's the reason why in the current situation at the moment of the start of the recovery, I prefer EO over FR. Since I prefer to buy something with a beta of 2 rather than something with a beta of 1, so I always buy LVC/GLE/ACA rather than BNP/Totale.  
But again, you are right, things have changed recently, FR becomes stronger and stronger, whereas EO becomes weaker and weaker, as if the beta of FR goes beyond 1 whereas the beta of EO goes below 2.  So it's the moment for me to rethink about arbitrage between these two stocks. Or alternatively, simply buy LVC/BX4.

Dillon

发现风向转换(BCE消息不如预期, 西班牙意大利债务问题延续, 英国状况不容乐观, 等等),加上之后美国数据的风险, 加上明天是星期五继续下跌回调可能性增大, 调整所有仓位变换方向安度周末.
可惜发现风向变化后犹豫了没有及时出手, 等大盘从+0.4%跌到-1.1%,又回到-0.75%,又跌到0.9%时候,看到这个消息:"14:53  CAC40: rechute sur 3240, Draghi écarte nouveau LTRO imminent  (CF)", 才下手改变仓位方向的. 因为这个消息确认了今天大方向不会反弹,将开始新一轮的调整. 起码这个周末前后方向会向下.

Compte Titre中: 早上买入JXR. 下午原价全部抛出, 损失交易费.  另外跑掉之前的所有SRD的LVC, 也是损失交易费.

PEA中操作: 全部清仓(除了少量套牢的MEMS和ALHOL未动)换成BX4
Lyxor ETF XBear CAC 40     42159163 5-7-2012 Achat de titres  1 680 CPT M  5-7-2012 1 680 à 35,23  Exécuté en une fois  
METabolic EXplorer SA     42159106 5-7-2012 Vente de titres  7 018 CPT M  5-7-2012 7 018 à 3,56  Restant exécuté  
Archos SA     42159086 5-7-2012 Vente de titres  7 079 CPT M  5-7-2012 7 079 à 4,84  Restant exécuté  
Lyxor ETF XBear CAC 40     42158580 5-7-2012 Achat de titres  900 CPT M  5-7-2012 900 à 34,99  Exécuté en une fois  
Valeo SA     42158552 5-7-2012 Vente de titres  290 CPT M  5-7-2012 290 à 34,51  Exécuté en une fois  
Lyxor ETF Leverage CAC 40     42158499 5-7-2012 Vente de titres  3 595 CPT M  5-7-2012 3 595 à 6,02  Exécuté en une fois  
Lyxor ETF Leverage CAC 40     42145414 4-7-2012 Achat de titres  3 595 CPT L: 6,07  4-7-2012 3 595 à 6,07  Exécuté en une fois  
Valeo SA     42145333 4-7-2012 Achat de titres  290 CPT L: 34,90  4-7-2012 290 à 34,61  Restant exécuté  
Lyxor ETF Leverage CAC 40     42145144 4-7-2012 Achat de titres  831 CPT L: 6,01  4-7-2012  Annulation confirmée  
Lyxor ETF Leverage CAC 40     42145134 4-7-2012 Achat de titres  828 CPT L: 6,03  6-7-2012  Annulation confirmée  
Memscap SA (regroupées)     42145120 4-7-2012 Achat de titres  3 619 CPT L: 1,38  4-7-2012  Annulation confirmée  
Faurecia SA     42144810 4-7-2012 Vente de titres  857 CPT L: 13,89  4-7-2012 857 à 13,89  Exécuté en une fois  
Faurecia SA     42144771 4-7-2012 Vente de titres  722 CPT L: 13,86  4-7-2012 722 à 13,86  Exécuté en une fois  
Faurecia SA     42144694 4-7-2012 Vente de titres  717 CPT L: 13,98  6-7-2012  Annulation confirmée  
Faurecia SA     42143852 4-7-2012 Vente de titres  720 CPT L: 13,90  4-7-2012  Annulation confirmée  
Faurecia SA     42143840 4-7-2012 Vente de titres  723 CPT L: 13,85  4-7-2012 723 à 13,85  Restant exécuté  

T.R.H

D版，最近刚进股市，好像个个价位都不高，但是就是不知道买什么好
看了D版的分析，那个超跌股jxr，但是已经涨了一个礼拜了，将近百分之20的涨幅了，现在进去是不是又晚了点？
请指教，谢谢

bonnechance6666

EO 建仓  350 à 13,03E   我觉得这个价位还是挺划算的   慢慢等它回归  21E

Dillon

T.R.H 发表于 2012-7-6 09:18
D版，最近刚进股市，好像个个价位都不高，但是就是不知道买什么好
看了D版的分析，那个超跌股jxr，但是已经 ...

JXR从技术分析上看,上升趋势明显.
但是从大环境看, CAC近期上涨过猛, 现在新的负面消息开始累计, 作为pretext, 开始新的一轮调整. 在这样的形势下, JXR也可能受到影响, 获利回吐压力增大. 而且JXR本身一直没有任何消息, 市场上相关的行业消息大都是负面的,比如apple的新的袖珍版ipad, 比如微软和google的新出的pad, 对JXR都不利.
JXR快出T2了,即使T2之前JXR继续上涨, 很可能T2出来的时候vente la nouvelle.
因此综合以上因素, 我在JXR回升到4.9E左右就都出货了. 等待JXR回到4.7E-4.8E之间的支撑线时再根据情况考虑重新进入.
如果短期回不来,也等T2数据推出之后再考虑重新进入.
基本上,当大盘recovery的时候,想JXR这样的超跌的中小股上升动力最大. 但是现在大盘趋势看跌, JXR如果没有利好消息,近靠技术反弹, 现在也基本到头了, 这一波很难突破5.3E-5.35E, 因此不着急进入.

Dillon

bonnechance6666 发表于 2012-7-6 09:21
EO 建仓  350 à 13,03E   我觉得这个价位还是挺划算的   慢慢等它回归  21E

价位倒是挺合适的.
这次UG连续负面消息出来, EO突破14E受阻重新返回13E, 估计短期很难突破14E.
但是中长期看, 等大盘真的复苏(也需要等秋天/冬天了), EO接近20E是迟早的事情.
因此我选择短期做空大盘, 等大盘调整一轮之后再重新进入.
另外EO上一轮上涨主要是因为UG要转卖EO的rumor, OPA的rumor. 如果真的出这类消息, EO随时可能大涨, 因此也要盯紧一些, 一旦出消息立刻果断入场.

Dillon

忍不住诱惑, Compte Titres里买入5000 x 3.055E CAC7S( GE PERP.CAC40 X7 SHORT TR.B     FR0011130350     CERTIFICAT INDEXE ).

bonnechance6666

bonnechance6666 发表于 2012-7-4 17:17
EO 换仓  PRC 199 à 25,02

没拿稳   26.69出了 PRC

Dillon

我CAC7S今天没有拿稳, 收益少了不少. 赚了3%左右就撤出来了，胆子小了。

PEA里面，BX4到36.09的时候全部卖掉了. 后来发现趋势增大, 又在36.1 - 36.29之间以均价36.2左右全部卖回来了. 继续满仓BX4.