Don't worry about Morgan Stanely or JP Morgan or ML.
Normally, all the loss have been estimated by bank itself. No surprise. Many financial products like CDS, CDO based on real estate have reached its expiration, so the bad result is normal. Anyway, there is no financial strucuture pb for several big investment banks, Opposed to the china banking industry, the european and american banks prefer to separate several branch activities, like Natixis, which has sold its mortgage branch to its principal shareholders. So the bad result will impact its consolidated account, but not its main activity.
The world's economy will recover from the subprime at the second semester of 2009. Just a personal estimation. And according to the Euribor and Libor forward cuve recent, i supposed that in the next 6 months, we may have a small credit crunch.
The world's economy will recover from the subprime at the second semester of 2009. Just a personal estimation.
d'où vient cette estimation? pourkoi pas fin cette année? d'où vient la chute economique de cette année? crise pétrolière?
je connais pas grand chose sur le secteur, mais c toujours du plaisir d'apprendre, merci
To introduce a simple concept, the risk. Although the many big companies had a good annual result in Europe and in US, the market is fulfilled with the incertainety.
The risk is composed by the incertainety and the exposure. So if the investors feel risky and they can't reduce immediately or eliminate their incertainety upon the financial market with different asset combination, what they can do is to reduce their exposure, which means to not participate in the financial market. and as you know that we are now in a inflationnary situation for all the countries due to the commodity price and raw material, so the central bank should try to reduce the 3M which will probably invite a credit crunch, and if there is a credit crunch, there is less credit finance, as the cost becomes high, so the company doesn't want to invest with a such high cost, so as my opinion, i don't think that the world economy could recover at the end of this year. 2009 should be a year consolidation.
Sorry to introduce a concept that u've already understood, so what i mean is that according to the marco-economy and the rate cuve, i could suppose a downside of credit and the central bank may regin its credit policy.
Why 2009 will not be a peak year, now we are in deep inflationary situation for most of countries both developed and emergeing, so the needs to controll the inflation have been stressed. First of all, the positive news is that the presidential election has been finalised in USA and several new taxes and regluation policy will be created to support the economy growth. Secondly, we have to see that although the financial market lost much, and the retail market are not at all active in USA, but the consumption index is not very strongly affected, so that means the investors have always power to invest, many retail products lost its original value and a very good subject to be invested, in the stock markets, almost all the big industrial groups gained money last year and have a good prevision of result for this year, but theirs stock prices and PER are not in a normal level which makes me to estimate a rise in next year. And the II especially the hedge fund have already done the analysis and have focus on several specific market. I can't explain everything in writing all of this and i have to stress that it's my personal estimation and everyone has his own benchemark which will help him to make a decision or estimation. Wish i've answered your question. and what's your point of view?
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