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[人文·社科] 转帖 凯恩斯和凯恩斯主义

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发表于 2016-11-23 12:01:20 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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凯恩斯和凯恩斯主义   刘以栋



充满争议的美国大选以川普获胜而结束。

今年的两位美国总统候选人可以用水火不容来形容,但他们在经济政策方面,却都要执行凯恩斯的经济政策。 现在期刊报章也经常提到凯恩斯学派,所以我这里简单介绍一下凯恩斯和凯恩斯主义,期望对大家理解经济政策有所帮助。


凯恩斯是一位英国经济学家,1883年生,1946年去世,享年62岁。


凯恩斯的父亲曾经是剑桥大学社会学和经济学讲师。英国大学的讲师一般相当于美国的大学教授。 凯恩斯的母亲是一位社会改革工作者。


凯恩斯是家里的长子,他还有一位弟弟和一个妹妹。他的弟弟后来做了外科医生,他的妹妹后来嫁给了一位诺贝尔生物医学奖得主。 总体来看,凯恩斯生长在一个书香门地,是中等偏上家庭。这样的成长环境应该对他后来的经济理论思想的形成有很大帮助。


史学家说,凯恩斯的父母对他们的孩子充满关爱。 老夫妇婚后一直住在同一幢房子里,没有搬过家。父母和孩子一起学习成长,所以他们的孩子从来没有感到父母和他们有代沟。在凯恩斯申请奖学金时和当他在大萧条期间投资失败以后,他的父亲都提供有力帮助。 如果从教育的角度,凯恩斯的父母是一对模范夫妇,子女教育也很成功。


在私生活方面,凯恩斯是个同性恋。他曾经跟一个俄国芭蕾舞演员结婚,但是没有留下孩子。凯恩斯的“同志”们曾经给他许多帮助,包括帮他出书,但也因此给他招来很多批评。


现在让我们看看凯恩斯的学术观点。 凯恩斯21岁时取得数学学士学位,那时博士学位也不多,他也没有取得其它更高学位。凯恩斯大学毕业以后,没有立刻离开学校,曾经作为研究生,旁听过一学期经济学的课程,这也是他在经济领域的全部正规教育。


凯恩斯在大学期间参加了答辩俱乐部,这对他后来的职业生涯影响深远。凯恩斯是一个乐观主义者。他认为他对任何有兴趣的问题都能找到解决办法,并且他相信政府能把事情做好,这都是凯恩斯理论的基础。


在凯恩斯以前,主流经济学的理论是:消费者的需求总是大于生产能力,所有生产出来的物品,只要价格合理,总会被消费。


凯恩斯推翻了以前的主流经济学理论。他认为,经济发展有其自己结构问题。譬如,失业并不总是因为人懒造成的,失业有时是经济发展不平衡造成的。 凯恩斯认为,生产出来的物品并不总能找到买家,这样失业就会变成经济收缩时期的自然结果。 这让我想起以前看过的一个故事:一个小孩放学回家,发现家里很冷,就问妈妈为什么没有生炉子取暖。妈妈说,因为爸爸丢了工作,所以没有钱买煤。孩子问,爸爸为什么丢了工作。妈妈说,因为煤太多,卖不出去,所以爸爸丢了采煤的工作。


根据凯恩斯理论,当经济不能维持全部工作人口都被雇用时,政府应该介入,通过政府消费来刺激经济发展。


在美国大萧条时期,凯恩斯提出了两个经济理论:降低利率的货币政策(Monetary Policy)和政府投资基础建设的财经政策(Fiscal Policy)。


当利率下降时,企业借贷成本下降,以前不赚钱的投资,在低利率的政策下,就可以变得有利可图。 因为利率下降,贷款消费的利息减少,消费者就能负担得起贷款消费(譬如买房,买车)。这一点,世界各中央银行从2008年开始就这么做了。


财经政策方面,政府可以通过减少税收,或者增加政府花费,或者通过两者同时进行来刺激经济。 政府的投资和消费可以增加商业需求和工作机会。 如果政府花费超过政府财政收入时,政府可以通过举债来增加预算(这一点,川普政府准备去做)。


到二战结束时,凯恩斯理论在非共产党国家被广泛应用。到了上世纪七十年代,凯恩斯学派遭到了挑战,因为它不能解释失业率和通货膨胀率都高的滞涨现象(Stagflation)。所以, 在1979年到2007年间,凯恩斯理论被诟病的比较多。大家认为,罗斯福总统实行的新政并没有缩短大萧条时期。相反,美国大萧条时期直到二战以后才结束,罗斯福的新政其实延长了大萧条时期。


2007年到2009年的经济危机,给凯恩斯理论带来了新的活力。 面对2008年发生的美国和世界的金融危机,美国和世界又重新转向凯恩斯经济理论。美国政府直接进入市场救市,给银行贷款,把两房收归国有(房地美,房你美, Fannie Mae 和 Freddie Mac),以及后来的美联储量化宽松财经政策,都是基于凯恩斯的政府干预理论。


中国当前的财经政策,也是根据凯恩斯理论运行。2009年经济危机高潮时,当时的中国人民银行行长就出来讲,布雷顿森林(Bretton Woods)体系的失败就是因为我们没有执行凯恩斯的超级银行货币。人民币最近加入到特殊提款权 (Special Drawing Rights)一蓝子货币,应该是那时观点的后继效应。


大家知道,经济学属于艺术而非科学,所以各种观点都有其合理性和弊端。 日本经济衰退二十余年,大家现在也不知道其发生的原因,更不知道解决办法。


现在让我们看看凯恩斯理论的批评者的观点。凯恩斯,弗里德曼(Milton Friedman,1912-2006)和 哈耶克 (Friedrich Hayek, 1899-1992)是世界历史上最有名的三位经济学家。 他们一致认为,经济周期是几乎不可预测的,也是不可控制的。 经济发展平稳时,人们对经济增长和通货膨胀率预测比较准。 人们非常期望能预测经济发展的拐点,但它却是最难预测的。


凯恩斯和弗里德曼都认为,政府可以调控经济周期。凯恩斯认为,政府当局可以通过政府花费来调控经济周期,而弗里德曼则认为,独立的中央银行的货币政策可以平滑经济周期。
哈耶克则认为政府没有能力调控经济周期。因为人类对社会和经济发展系统的认识是有限的,所以政府部门没有足够的知识做合理的经济决策。 有效的资源利用和交换只能通过市场自由贸易的价格机制来实现。


凯恩斯和弗里德曼应该都归于凯恩斯学派,虽然有人可能认为弗里德曼应该跟凯恩斯平行,但我认为他也属于凯恩斯学派。哈耶克则属于奥地利学派。奥地利学派认为经济有其发展规律,人为干预是没有有的,只会把事情搞得更糟糕。


经济学是一个广博的学科,各种理论不可能在这样一篇短文中解释清楚。就是凯恩斯理论本身,也有许多细节部分需要推敲。


在结束本文以前,我想引述这三位经济学家的几条通俗名言,让大家体验一下他们的智慧。
通过持续的通货膨胀,政府在悄悄的没收其公民的大量财富 (By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens)。---- 凯恩斯


从长远的角度看当前的事务是个伪命题。长远来看我们终归死亡(Long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead) 。 ----凯恩斯


经济问题不应该是我们生活中的主要问题。主要问题是日常生活和人际关系、个人行为和信仰(The day is not far off when the economic problem will take the back seat where it belongs, and the arena of the heart and the head will be occupied or reoccupied, by our real problems - the problems of life and of human relations, of creation and behavior and religion)。----凯恩斯


自由贸易的根本事实是,贸易双方都受益(The most important single central fact about a free market is that no exchange takes place unless both parties benefit)。----弗里德曼


没有免费午餐/凡事都有代价( There's no such thing as a free lunch)。----弗里德曼


做好事的权力也可以被用来做坏事(The power to do good is also the power to do harm)。----弗里德曼


物质生活平等只能在独裁政府下实现(A claim for equality of material position can be met only by a government with totalitarian powers)。----哈耶克


经济学的重要任务是让人们知道,他们对自己以为能制定的财经政策其实所知甚少(The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design)。----- 哈耶克


可以说,人类历史很大部分就是通货膨胀史。政府通过引入通货膨胀来为政府服务。(I do not think it is an exaggeration to say history is largely a history of inflation, usually inflations engineered by governments for the gain of governments)。 ----哈耶克


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